So far the financial markets have gotten off to a decent start. As I write this blog the Dow is up 6% year to date, the S&P up 8.2%, the NASDAQ up 13.3% and the EAFE International equity index is up 7%. These are very attractive returns, at a time when many economic and investment themes are worrisome.
During much of the later part of 2011, a number of asset values tended to move in unison in response to what was happening within the European debt crisis. Whether we would again encounter another financial meltdown was often an overriding theme. Now we are seeing some differing correlations among the various asset classes that could well mean rapidly growing emerging markets will experience attractive returns ahead.
China represents a situation that bears close watch. With its economic growth rate down to “only” 6%, there are structural movements there to keep growth up while also reigning in a housing bubble possibility. This country’s wellbeing is of great importance to the US economy and the rest of the world. Cheap labor is no longer the big attraction and costs of exports have risen.
With market interest rates at historic lows, income oriented investors continue to move towards higher yielding assets such as dividend paying stocks and lower quality bonds; thereby being forced to take on correspondingly more risk. We are of the opinion that some of these themes are getting high on the valuation scale. Many corporations are flush with cash and it remains to be seen whether some of that will be funneled into higher dividend payments.
The Fed is keeping a close watch on the economy for any meaningful signs of slowing. The rate of unemployment is improving, resulting in possibly higher levels of spending. Consumer spending is close to 2/3 of the Gross Domestic Product and its trend is highly correlated to inflation. It is unlikely at this time that we will see another round of Quantitative Easing anytime soon.
All of the above factors bear close watch and, as this political year unfolds, we could well get hints of what could unfold in 2012, 2013 and beyond. Tax rates are destined to increase both on investment earnings and personal wages, thereby potentially pulling some spending out of the economic system.
We at New Wealth Advisors stay in touch with all emerging developments and use likely outcomes to formulate our investment policy and the advice that we impart to our clients.
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