Summer is officially over and the majority of investors are back to paying attention to their finances and portfolios. In my experience, this is an “all ages” phenomenon.
So what can we look forward to over the next few months? With September historically one of the worst months for stocks, investors are already facing a whole host of head winds such as 3rd quarter corporate results, job creation, Federal Reserve monetary policy, international currency issues, Euro zone concerns and a general worldwide growth malaise (even China.) It is the rare time when everything is working harmoniously so I suspect that there will always be some serious crosswinds and investors will need to carefully navigate the minefield.
The top items on our list for consideration (pros & cons) are:
- Stubborn unemployment
- Lack of meaningful new stimuli
- Global debt worries
- Lower consumer confidence
- China’s dominance and its own growth concerns and how it will impact the US
- Hyper strong currencies in Switzerland and Japan
- Eroding Euro zone
- Plenty of companies are very cash rich, ready to endure continuing weaknesses
- Dividend increases are more frequent
- Consumers are still spending on high end goods but less so on moderately priced products
If only cash had some sort of return better than basically zero we could get paid for the comfort of principal preservation. However, multiple opportunity costs loom large as zero risk equals minimal returns and that is not what investing is all about.
“Risk and reward go hand in hand.” With investment themes constantly changing and considering that most of us are not frequent traders, one’s best estimate of future conditions and events needs to be established before putting any money to work. Oftentimes, inexperienced investors lock onto seemingly attractive themes and pile into such investments without thinking ahead that losses will ensue if those themes don’t pan out. Too much media hype is primarily responsible for these one off or popular investments.
To be fully informed these days is a full-time task. Use whatever information you have and jot down several economic themes that look to be positive and a few that appear to be negative. If you have a generally positive opinion of the US economy going forward, then you want to have some dollars allocated to domestic company stocks or domestic mutual funds/exchange traded funds. If you agree that it is a global economy (tough to disagree), then some dollars need to be focused abroad. This can be accomplished by buying foreign company stocks (via American Depository Receipts), foreign only mutual funds/exchange traded funds. Don’t be afraid of putting some dollars in that category. If current income is needed, many common stocks pay decent dividends that are currently taxed at favorable rates. Also bonds pay interest, and that can be taxable or tax free. Interest rates are bound to head up at some point so don’t pick maturities too far out.
If you are just not tuned in nor comfortable with making critical decisions, there are a number of mutual funds with a “world or global” focus where the portfolio managers make the geographic allocation decisions for you. Some markets zig while others zag so having some level of dollars in many markets is prudent. In this way you’ll have a better opportunity of having positive outcomes.
For the experienced investor, there are a myriad of vehicles to invest in and more coming to market every day. Still, though, one can cull five or six themes and allocate dollars accordingly. If I were to give one piece of advice here it would be to get to know yourself, your needs, your tolerance to risk and time horizons for needing money. The “how much” number will be constantly changing and it is up to you to be smart about your decisions. If you can’t do this effectively, get the help you need. One bad mistake can cost an awful lot.
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